PAKISTAN HAS varied geography with northern alpines covered with glaciers and southern plains bordering to the Arabian Sea, along with rivers flowing through the country from north to south. During monsoon season riverine flooding is usual in the low-lying areas along the rivers while flash flooding is also experienced in hilly and partial hilly areas due to heavy rainfall and glacial lake outburst floods. Pakistan faced severe floods since its inception in 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1978,1992 and in 2010. It has suffered a cumulative financial loss of more than US$ 38.171 billion during the past 70 years. About 12,330 people lost their lives, and an area more than 616,598 Sq.km was affected due to 24 major flood events. The 2010 flood alone affected one-fifth of the country, seventy-eight districts over 100,000 square km, claiming more than 20 million affected people with the death toll of 1,980. About 1.6 million homes have been destroyed and more than 17 million acre cropped area is wiped out, which resulted in PKR 10 billion economic losses. The 2010 floods triggered the need of prediction and planning of hydrological cycle which can impact on water environment, water, and disaster management. Hydrological disasters are coming in natural patterns, based on which, the data scientists can predict its future variations. This forecast can be assessed through rivers flow with the help of modern techniques like dendrochronology. These tree rings not only tell us the age of a tree, but also a powerful tool for water flow modeling, archaeology, drought, rainfall, forest ecology, and climate change. The computer-generated modeling of flow in vulnerability of rivers have become critical tools in evaluating the long-term sustainable administration of rivers. This unique study keeps useful records of past disasters on timelines of decades to centuries. Many of these progressions are substantial natural hazards, understanding their distribution, timing and controls provides valuable information that can assist in the prediction, mitigation and defence against these hazards and their effects on Pakistan and the region. The more we research in the filed of dendrochronology, the more we will learn about avalanches, rockfalls, landslides, floods, earthquakes, wildfires, their timeline, intensity and several other processes. Pakistan is fortunate enough with the talented researchers in this field as well. Dr Moinuddin Ahmed, Professor of Plant Ecology and Dendrochronology have the 500 years data of Indus River flow, whereas the three stations of WAPDA hold only 100 years of data. Reconstruction of Indus River flows on these modern lines will not only helpful in irrigation, water management, hydrology and water distribution but will also help to understand hydrological disaster in Pakistan and the region. And to draw mitigation plans for disaster management that bring large losses to GDP. Pakistan is in need to do all, to stop hydrological disasters that becoming catastrophes. There is dire need to take measures to guard people from future flood disasters and increase the resilience of infrastructure, economies and communities including better emergency warning. Each year about 0.715 million people in Pakistan are affected by river-floods, that is equivalent to US$2.7 billion losses and account for 1 percent of GDP. By 2030 this could reach to 2.7 million affected people according to World Resources Institute. Under the increasing flood threating conditions, allocation of funds for flood programmes should be significantly enhanced. The current approaches regarding flood management may not fulfill the needs and are not as sustainable as they might be. Thus, it is crucial to deal with growing hazards of flooding and the uncertainties of climate change more effectively.
- Intellectual & social exchange: 345 Campus
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