A plan released by the country’s state-owned National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) that LNG-fired power generation of Pakistan is set to decline by 2030.
The decline comes as a result of greater increase in the renewables and carbon neutral generation in Pakistan. The Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2047 (IGCEP) shows, as Pakistan seeks to raise its non-fossil fuel capacity.
NTDC stated that Pakistan’s annual LNG-fired generation rose to 28.1TWh last year, from from 27.8TWh in 2018, according to data released by the country’s regulatory authority, Nepra. But combined generation from power units using regasified LNG (RLNG) under a number of different demand scenarios is set to slow to 20.7-21.8 TWh/yr. The plan’s base-case scenario has LNG-fired output at 21.1 TWh/yr.
This would be equivalent to a fall in power demand of about 833,000 t/yr of LNG and suggests future LNG demand growth from Pakistan’s power sector may be limited.
The slower power-sector LNG demand comes despite significant power demand growth expectations, based on the IMF’s projected GDP growth, which is set to rise to 215 TWh/yr by 2030 from 124 TWh/yr last year.
But overall coal-fired output could rise, the IGCEP report says, with annual output under different demand and policy scenarios ranging from 20.7 TWh/yr to as high as 62.1 TWh/yr under a scenario assuming no renewables policies, compared with 21.1 TWh/yr last year. The NTDC’s base case estimates 2030 coal-fired output at 38.5 TWh/yr.
Annual generation by nuclear units, bagasse-fired plants and renewables is set to rise considerably under the plan, compared with last year’s output, rising to 175.7 TWh/d under the base-case scenario from 49.3 TWh/yr last year.
But LNG-fired power capacity is still set to rise to 10.9GW by 2030 under the IGCEP’s base case, from about 6.79GW this year, enabling the country’s LNG-fired fleet to meet drops in variable renewable generation output, the plan notes.