SBP Warns Of Higher Risks For Food Security In Pakistan

According to the SBP, there is growing concern in Pakistan about food security, as country has had to import wheat, a staple food, in significant quantities for the second year in a row.

SBP Warns Of Higher Risks For Food Security In Pakistan

 

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has warned that rising populations and global warming may pose greater threats to food security in Pakistan. According to the SBP’s annual report released on Wednesday, the agriculture sector has been growing steadily over the last few years, averaging around 3.9 percent per year over the last three years.

The crop sector has performed even better, growing at a rate of 6.3 percent during the same time period. Despite this performance, the country had to import $ 9.0 billion in food products in FY22, while exports totaled $ 5.4 billion, resulting in a $ 3.6 billion trade deficit in net food exports.

According to the SBP, there is growing concern in Pakistan about food security, as the country has had to import wheat, a staple food, in significant quantities for the second year in a row. As the world grapples with rising global temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, the impact of climate change on food security in places like Pakistan is becoming increasingly concerning for a variety of reasons.

While policymakers have traditionally relied on price intervention and input subsidies to ensure Pakistan’s food security, climate change will exacerbate food security challenges due to floods, low productivity, and poor infrastructure, among other factors.

Pakistan is the eighth-most affected country by climate change, losing around 0.5 percent of its GDP in 173 climate-related disasters between 2000 and 2019. In the worst-case scenario, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), average annual losses in Pakistan could reach 9.1 percent of GDP, the highest in South Asia.

Because of these vulnerabilities, the impact of climate change on food security in Pakistan must be assessed in order for policymakers to adapt to or mitigate these risks. In Pakistan, ensuring food security is primarily linked to wheat, the staple food.

According to the report, wheat crop availability and price stability are critical due to the wide-ranging impact, particularly on the most vulnerable segments of society. Because 77.5 percent of agricultural production occurs in arid regions where temperatures are expected to rise faster than in other climatic zones, rising temperatures will significantly increase the risks to Pakistan’s food security.

According to the report, food security in Pakistan will be jeopardised through a variety of channels. This included little room to expand cultivation area (particularly for wheat) in the short to medium term due to current technological constraints, the availability of water during the Rabi season acting as a constraint in Pakistan’s canal-irrigated areas, and land degradation due to imbalanced fertiliser use and water logging.

Climate change is expected to slow progress in the future; for example, global wheat yields are expected to fall by 17 percent due to changing weather patterns, and the constant population growth rate is posing resource availability challenges in addition to the rising threat of locusts, particularly in rice-wheat farm systems.

According to the report, climate change poses additional risks to these estimates by widening the demand-supply gap. There are several policy options available to counter the threat of climate change to food security, according to the report.

“There is a need to increase policy focus on introducing high-yielding varieties of wheat through research and development. Reducing some inefficient subsidies for inputs, such as water and gas, may help increase fiscal space,” the report suggested.

Imposition of carbon tax with border carbon adjustment will increase public revenues to fight climate change adversities. Food security in Pakistan has mostly focused on the availability of critical food items.

According to the report, focusing on other aspects of food security, such as accessibility, utilization, and stability, may be more beneficial in the long run. This may lead to less reliance on wheat and a shift to a more balanced diet, which may reduce the rate of malnutrition and stunted growth.