The country has been experiencing frequent bouts of heavy rain in recent months, but some environmentalists believe the next climate extreme is on the way.
The upcoming El Nino weather effects may pose a threat to South Africa’s food security in the near future according to the Agricultural Business Chamber.
The country has been experiencing frequent bouts of heavy rain in recent months, but some environmentalists believe the next climate extreme is on the way.
As the four-year cycle of La Nia’s above-normal rainfall comes to an end, experts predict that South Africa’s primarily rain-fed agriculture will be stressed. International Research Institute for Climate stated that El Nino is expected to begin by the end of this year.
The Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa has warned that an El Nino-induced drought would cause food insecurity in the region. Forecaster Lehlohonolo Thobela explains the phenomenon: “A region can expect less rain. As a result of less rainfall, El Nino may cause some drought.” According to the chamber, when El Nino weather hit the country in 2015, staple crops such as maize saw a drop in production of nearly three million tons.
The lack of maize and the other rain-fed crops necessitated imports that the country could not afford this time. “These droughts could intensify and cause all sorts of challenges,” says the chamber’s chief economist, Wandile Shilobo, “especially as we continue to struggle with water infrastructure in South Africa.”
Shilobo stated that agricultural supply will suffer if there is insufficient rain and irrigation fails due to power outages.
Climate change will almost certainly affect how El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles behave and influence global climate. It is unclear exactly how the cycles will change. According to some research, the El Nino and La Nia cycles may intensify, having a greater impact on global rainfall and temperature.
Changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle are also expected to amplify current impacts on southern African summer wet-season periods.