Climate change is imposing serious threats to agriculture production and food security in the 21st century, particularly in many countries of the world, due to possibly decreasing trends in crop yield occurred.


Food security is defined as; good quality, safe and nutritious food items available at affordable prices, at all time to all peoples for better health. Climate change affects the four dimensions of food security such as; (1) Food production and Food Availability (2) Stability of food Supplies (3) Access to Food (4) Food Utilization. Food security will not only depend upon the impact of climate change on food production, but also human development, economic growth and food aid policies. Climate change directly affects the food production through producing change in agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by disturbing growth and income production. Climate change induced the decline in crop production and land suitability. Extreme weather events like increase in temperature, changing rainfall patterns adversely affect the crop yield and food production which ultimately affects the stability of food supplies and food security.


Falling prices of food items and increase in income leads to improvement in access to food. However, climate change leads to increase in food prices and decreasing rate of income growth.


Climate change may occur due to anthropogenic and natural activities occur for a long period of time (IPCC, 2007). Many problems like floods, drought, famine and newly born disease occurs due to global warming in many parts of the world. The observations since 1961 showed that average global ocean temperature have increased up to 300m depth and these oceans taking up 80% of heat added in climate system.Over the years 1961 to 2003 the global average sea level rose at a level of 1.8 mm (1.3mm to 2.3 mm) per year, and over the year 1993 to 2003 the average global sea level rose at a level of 3.1 (2.4mm to 3.8mm) per year. It has been found that precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, whereas precipitation declined in the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia (IPCC, 2007).


The primary determinant of agriculture production is climate, thus climate and food availability are interlinked with each other. Climate change affects the crop production, livestock production, water balance, input supplies and other agricultural components. As continuous increase of world temperature will leads to the decrease of crop production.


As increase of 2oC in temperature there will be no international grain market and most of the major grain exporters will not have enough grain to export. Starting in 2006 and peaking in 2008, food prices around the world increased rapidly and forced the many nations in to hunger causing riots in 30 countries.


Extreme weather events in major cereals producing countries causing decrease in yields and stock, speculation in food markets and growth in non-food crops and high oil prices. During 2008 the prices of selected commodities increased up to50-200%.


In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) cereals production growth would decrease by 3.2% in 2050 as a result of climate change. High food prices are projected to break the demand for the food affordability of all agricultural and livestock products under climate change. As result of high food prices per capita calorie availability across SSA projected to decrease by 1.3% or 37 kilocalories per capita / day. The largest drop of calories per capita to be decline by 2.6%, is projected for central zone. Thus, for central zone per capita minimum calorie availability of 20,000 kilocalories recommended for a healthy life.The number of malnourished children would increase in SSA in both 2030 and 2050 due to climate change.


Without climate change, the malnutrition levels are projected to decrease from 28% in 2000 and to 24% in 2030, while the absolute number of malnourished children would still increase from 30 million children in 2000, to 38 million in 2030, before reverting to 30 million in 2050, given the continued rapid increase in population growth in the region. Child malnutrition would increase by an additional 0.5 million children in 2010, would be higher by 1 million children in 2030, and would still be higher by 0.6 million children by 2050 under climate change.


Pakistan ranks 12th out of 170 countries in a recent climate change vulnerability index. The annual temperature time series for Pakistan during 1901-2007 showed temperature increased 0.06 oC per decade with a total increase of 0.64 oC over this period. Global Circulation Models estimatedthat average temperature across the country will increase 3.9-4.4 oC by the 2080s.


INCREASED IN TEMPERATURES IN PAKISTAN PER DECADE


Winter and summer rainfall has decreased by 10-15% in both arid coastal areas and hyper mountains. Pakistan has experienced a rise of 18-32% in monsoon rainfall in sub-humid and humid areas. Sever cyclones have been frequently occurring along the coastal line of Arabian Sea in Pakistan.In 1992 worst flood occurred in Jhelum River in Pakistan. Heavy rainfall in Balochistan and record snow fall in northern areas, the country had one of the worst natural disasters in 2005. In 2010 again worst flood occur in Pakistan, which inundated approximately one-third of the country and resulted into massive loss of human lives and properties.


Heat waves increased across the India Sub-Continent in 2005 ultimately reduced the agriculture yield by 10-40% of the harvest for that year. Simulation studies of climatic models provided a negative impact of future climate change on global food production. In all climatic zones of Pakistan wheat production will decline with rise of global temperature. The rise of 5oC temperature over the baseline in arid southern plains will decline wheat yield by 1000 kg/hectare. But in humid areas rise of 5oC will reduce the wheat yield by 900 kg/hectare. The rising temperatures will cause shrinkage of 14 days of growing season in southern semi-arid areas and by 35 days in humid northern mountains.


Food and Agriculture Organization proposed following adaptation strategies to climate change in the food and agriculture sectors.


Protecting local food supplies, assets and livelihoods against the effects of increasing weather variability and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, through:


General risk management


Management of risks specific to different ecosystems – marine, coastal, inland water and floodplain, forest, dryland, island, mountain, polar, cultivated


Research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions


Introducing tree crops to provide food, fodder and energy and enhance cash incomes


Avoiding disruptions or declines in global and local food supplies due to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, through:


More efficient agricultural water management in general


More efficient management of irrigation water on paddies


Improved management of cultivated land


Improved livestock management


Use of new, more energy-efficient technologies by agro-industries


Protecting ecosystems, through provision of such environmental services as:


Use of degraded or marginal lands for productive planted forests or other cellulose biomass for alternative fuels


Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) carbon sink tree plantings


Watershed protection


Prevention of land degradation


Protection of coastal areas from cyclones and other coastal hazards


Preservation of mangroves and their contribution to coastal fisheries


Biodiversity conservation


The following mitigation strategies used to ensure the food security and stability of global food market such as;


Reducing emission of CO2


Reducing emission of methane and nitrous oxide


Carbon Sequestration


THE WAY FORWARD


The institutions settings for addressing food security and climate change linkages


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, its Conference of the Parties, the Kyoto Protocol and the Nairobi Worlk Programme


Agenda 21 and sustainable agriculture and rural development


The writers can be reached out at waqasali.uaar@gmail.com

By Web Team

Technology Times Web team handles all matters relevant to website posting and management.