Weakening of summer monsoon in SA predicted
STAFF REPORT IBD: High resolution climate models used at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, have predicted weakening of summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia towards the end of 21st century, said Dr Moetasim Ashfaq, Computational Climate Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA.
“I have reservations on projections of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). There is an element of uncertainty in projections of IPCC report based on multi Global Climate Models (GCM). Global models featured in IPCC report can resolve large-scale interactions but have limitations while capturing atmospheric processes at regional level,” Dr Moetasim said while delivering a special lecture on “South Asian Summer Monsoon in 21st Century” organized by SDPI.
He informed that simulations run in their model show an eastward shift in monsoon circulation, which would mean more rainfall over the eastern parts of South Asia. He said that South Asia has a very complex topography which is playing a major role in climate and weather of this region.
Chairing the session, Dr Qamar Uz Zaman Chaudhry, Advisor Climate Affairs, said that South Asian monsoon is the most complex weather system which is very difficult to simulate and predict.
He called for advance research on monsoon which he said, is the life line of South Asian economies.